USD/CHF Technical Analysis

Fundamental: The price of USD is still uncertain as Ben Bernanke’s announcement on the 31^st did little to confirm QE3.Therefore,this week won’t be affected by these measures. Nevertheless,USD is moving downwards since the past month,but may stay towards the upper side of the bearish channel.

Technical:

The 2H chart shows the current bearish channel USD/CHF is in. A regression analysis since the 25^th of July shows that the price tends to oscillate in the boundaries,but since the past 10 days it has remained in the lower end of the channel.If the price breaks out from the resistance line at 0.9667,then a long position would be applicable.However,it is most likely that the pair would continue to plummet.Therefore,the support line at 0.9448 should be seen as a breakout could see a steady fall of the pair. 

MACD is bearish as it is below 0,but is moving sideways.This shows some uncertainty in the market,but the bias is towards the negative side.Stochastics have fallen from the overbought level,and are currently moving upwards again.However,the price is still largely stagnant so support and resistance levels may be better indications.

The USD/CHF bearish pattern is occurring due to the fall of USD,as seen in the chart below:

USD seems to be moving sideways since the past few weeks,but it is in a larger bearish pattern.An introduction of QE3 could make it plunge,along with the USD/CHF pair.

MACD on the USD is bearish and below 0,signalling a decline.Stochastics have just reached the overbought level and are coming down again.Therefore,both signals are bearish for USD. However,if they break out from the upper channel at 10,033,then a long trade for USD/CHF would be favourable.